The obvious difference in the standard polling approach and our BASON method can be seen in the graphs above. The standard polling method produces a very biased estimate in a small sample that yields the current distribution of votes to be, for example, 65% for Hillary and 35% for Trump overall. This is obviously wrong and unrealistic.
However our prediction approach does not suffer from a biased sample nor does it suffer from the self-selection problem. Our prediction method utilizes the wisdom of crowds approach in a novel fashion.
By asking our respondents not only to express their preferences, but also who they think will win and how they feel about who other people think will win, we can use even a modest sample to make precise estimates of the likely outcome. This is the benefit of group level forecasting. Our diverse, decentralized, and independent group of respondents has given us very realistic estimates of the outcome, meaning that the final estimate is likely to be quite close to the actual outcome on November 8th.