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Electoral vote

Grey states have less than 10 votes. We need at least 10 voters to show a result for a given state. Share the survey among your friends to find out who will win your state!

Electoral votes over time

The graph shows the total electoral votes for each candidate across time, based on the estimated responses from our survey participants. It is updated on a daily basis until November 3rd.

The light blue and light red areas describes the average error. This will decrease as we get closer to election day and as the sample size increases, yielding a more and more precise estimate of the final vote share for both options.

The obvious difference in the standard polling approach and our BASON method can be seen in the graphs above. The standard polling method produces a very biased estimate in a small sample that yields the current distribution of votes to be, for example, 65% for Biden and 35% for Trump overall. This is obviously wrong and unrealistic.

However our prediction approach does not suffer from a biased sample nor does it suffer from the self-selection problem. Our prediction method utilizes the wisdom of crowds approach in a novel fashion.

By asking our respondents not only to express their preferences, but also who they think will win and how they feel about who other people think will win, we can use even a modest sample to make precise estimates of the likely outcome. This is the benefit of group level forecasting. Our diverse, decentralized, and independent group of respondents has given us very realistic estimates of the outcome, meaning that the final estimate is likely to be quite close to the actual outcome on November 3rd.

Users of the app over time